Why a Coronavirus vaccine WON’T save the World Economy!
COVID-19 is having a massive impact on the world economy.
Reports of a deep recession comparable to post World War II.
With almost 40 million infections and over 1 million deaths globally let’s not forget the real impact COVID-19 is having on real lives.
The great recession in history occurred after World War II, which was also hit by the Spanish Flu claiming 50 million lives.
The key factor now is the impact Coronavirus is having on economies primarily due to restriction of movement to limit the spread of the disease.
Therefore naturally if you can prevent the disease you can re-open the, movement of people and ultimately the economy.
Wouldn’t effective treatments also have a similar outcome?….
Why won’t a vaccine save us from a great Depression?
There are 3 key reasons why a vaccine on it’s own will not be the magic bullet every government in the world says it will be…
Let me explain…
In order to “save the World Economy” we need a solution quickly, the longer it takes the deeper governments go into debt and the more likely businesses are will cut staff and/or shut up shop….. leading to more unemployment and ultimately more government spending.
More people out of work means less consumer spending, less sales for businesses, less sales means less tax for governments.
The longer this goes on the more momentum this downward spiral gains and everything rapidly descends into darkness….
In order to “save the World Economy” we need to open up people movement, back to work, back to shops, back to normality.
Regardless of any solution people must have the confidence to get on with their daily lives.
When people feel their livelihood is uncertain they horde their money and time. Productivity and spending are reduced and we’re back to a downwards spiral….
In order to “save the World Economy” any vaccine but have a certain level effectiveness.
This effectiveness (called efficacy in the science world) will directly contribute to reducing spread and therefore boost confidence.
The level of efficacy of a Coronavirus vaccine to allow people to stop “social distancing” was found by a study by the American Journal of Preventative medicine…..
The Vaccine must be rolled out to a significant number of people to achieve efficacy – that takes time.
Let me explain what all this means….
By the way of you are reading this yo might also want know how you can win in a recession – check out our article Roadmap to Recovery – Recession Proof and be a Corona Virus Winner
3 Questions must be answered to determine whether a Coronavirus Vaccine will save the World Economy.
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When will a Safe & Effective Vaccine be available?
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How many people will take up the Vaccine?
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What efficacy is required to abolish social distancing?
Let’s explore each of these questions based on the latest information available…
When will a Safe & Effective Vaccine be available?
There’s lots of debate, and even more speculation on just how long it takes to make a safe & effective vaccine.
Historically the fastest vaccine ever produced was for Ebola – it took five years.
Now you could argue that we had already started research for a COVID-19 vaccine before we even knew about COVID-19… What???
SARS (discovered in Asia in 2003) and Corona virus are 80% identical. Back in 2003 scientist went searching for a SARS vaccine, many current vaccines are leveraging this research to get a head start.
Unfortunately a safe & effective SARS vaccine was not found. The modern flu vaccine took 15 years and we still don’t have a vaccine for the common cold (there are also similar to Coronavirus).
But that was 2003 and we are now in 2020. The world has never seen so much money time and effort go into producing a vaccine. The scale of the current vaccine research is unfathomable.
As of July 2020, there were 26 vaccines in clinical evaluation and 139 in pre-clinical evaluation.
That gives us some hope, but also shows how complex it is to produce….
Update: In record time we have 2 Vaccines approved!
How many people will take up the Vaccine?
The answer to this one question can derail all other good or great work.
The real challenge here is the differences that different countries and leaders have taken during this pandemic.
The reality is that it doesn’t matter ow long it takes to produce a vaccine if people don’t feel confident to take it.
This graph shows that overall 61% of people strongly believe a vaccine will be safe. Great!
Oh hold on let’s look a little closer…
What is concerning about this graph is the divergence in confidence in a vaccine across regions.
As I explore these results I am assuming that people will only get the vaccine jab once they strongly agree that it is safe.
In some of the less developed nations we have 80%+ people feeling safe to take the vaccine.
The real issue is that in the more developed regions like North America (48%), Western Europe (36%), and Australia & NZ (58%) the confidence is quite low.
Currently most of the viable early stage vaccines are coming from these developed regions where there is high scepticism as to their safety….
Remember earlier when we said confidence was a key factor why a Coronavirus vaccine WON’T save the World Economy!
What efficacy is required to abolish social distancing?
Okay, so we’ve got a vaccine, it’s effective, and some people are willing to take it.
How effective must it be before we can stop social distancing?
This question actually comprises 2 parts:
- What is the efficacy of the vaccine i.e. how well does it work
- How many people actually get the vaccine (hence the last question around the confidence of people taking the vaccine).
We know that Social Distancing is the key thing that has put the handbrake on the economy.
- Restaurants, Travel, Hotels, Sports & Music Venues, even The Office have their capacity significantly reduced by social distancing.
Therefore the goal of any vaccine must be to eradicate the need for Social Distancing.
A study published in the American Journal of Preventative Medicine found that a vaccine would have to be more than 70% effective before Americans could safely stop practising social distancing.
This means both a high efficacy and a high level of up take of people actually receiving the vaccine.
To put this into perspective, the current flu vaccine is 20% – 60% effective now (given Coronavirus is similar in some ways to the flu this is a reasonable comparison).
But there’s some hope. The measles vaccine for example is 92% – 98% effective.
Let’s bring it all together…
So when you take into account there 3 critical factors:
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How long it takes to produce a Safe & Effective Vaccine.
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How many people must take up the Vaccine.
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The high level of efficacy required to stop social distancing.
It is easy to see why a Coronavirus vaccine WON’T save the World Economy!
Or at least why the odds are stacked so severely against it!
Unfortnately tis opens up more questions than answers…
- Why are governments pushing this low probability solution?
- Why have we put so many eggs (money & resources) in one basket (a vaccine)?
- Why are we not also looking into existing and new treatments rather than being so heavily invested in vaccines?
- What about other general health & preventative therapies for those at risk?
- What will happen if a vaccine is produced but it does not reach 70% effectiveness?
This is super important if you are in business.
Why because you must make your own plans rather than rely on a vaccine as the silver bullet solution.
What you can do for your business!
There are actually many things you can and should do to set your business up for success in the coming months or years.
In reality these things will make your business much stronger in any economy.
- Profit Acceleration – this is one of the quickest and most effective ways to strengthen your business. When done well it skyrockets confidence, staff engagement, customer experience and Cash Flow. That’s a win, win, win , win.
- If you want to join our 25k Profit Acceleration program to get at least 25k more profit in 45 days – contact us.
- Readiness Planning – be ready in your business, it’s simple and effective. We have a great tool to help you.
- Regular strategy review – this is critical in times of uncertainty. I’m not talking about a 25 page report. It’s a simple approach to stay on top of the key things in your business. We have a great planner for you.
Cash Flow Management – this is often overlooked. Staying on top of cash flow is critical for success both during tough times and during high growth. (Tip: Profit Acceleration is a great tool here too).
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